MacroEnergyBrent Just Fell for a Fourth Straight Day on a Hormuz Traffic Signal — That's a Thinner Reed Than Traders Think
Brent Just Fell for a Fourth Straight Day on a Hormuz Traffic Signal — That’s a Thinner Reed Than Traders Think
Crude is unwinding fast: Brent slid to near $102 and WTI under $100, a fourth consecutive drop. The trigger isn’t new supply — it’s a shipping-traffic readout. Oil and LNG flows through Hormuz hit a six-month high, and Saudi Arabia is signaling it can restore more output. But ceasefire talks with Iran have stalled before, and Houthi attacks on Saudi soil haven’t stopped. Pricing in de-escalation while the underlying conflict is unresolved is a bet on diplomacy that’s already broken down twice this year.
#StraitOfHormuz #OilPrices #CrudeSupply #OilForecast #GeopoliticalRisk
Guyana’s Oil Output Is Slipping Just as Exxon’s Next 250,000 Barrels Are About to Land
Guyana’s production fell from 902,000 b/d in April to 869,000 b/d in June, even as the country edges toward a bigger structural shift: Exxon has now fully recovered its $55B Stabroek investment, meaning entitlement barrels shrink as Guyana’s government share grows. The offset is supposed to be Uaru — 250,000 b/d of fresh capacity Exxon says remains on track for a fourth-quarter startup. If Uaru slips even slightly, the math on Guyana as a reliable swing supplier gets shakier right when the market has least room for disappointment.
#Guyana #ExxonMobil #CrudeSupply #OilForecast #SouthAmerica
China Just Set a Jet Fuel Export Record — While Its Own Diesel Tank Is Running Toward Empty
China’s refined product exports rose 12.7% year-on-year in August, with jet fuel shipments up 41.4% to a monthly record, as Beijing keeps easing the export curbs it imposed during the Iran war. The catch: domestic diesel inventories are at a 15-month low and gasoline stocks are at their lowest since 2022. Beijing is currently exporting its way into a tighter corner. If those draws force a snapback in quotas, the world’s fastest-growing diesel and jet fuel supplier disappears from the market at the worst possible moment for winter demand.