MacroEnergyVLCC Freight Just Broke $1 Million a Day — That's a Second Oil Price Hike Nobody's Pricing In
VLCC Freight Just Broke $1 Million a Day — That’s a Second Oil Price Hike Nobody’s Pricing In
If freight stays here, landed crude costs for Asian refiners rise well beyond whatever Brent prints. The Baltic’s Middle East Gulf-China VLCC benchmark is now assessed near $1.1 million a day, with a Sinokor-operated tanker fixed at a rate equating to more than a million dollars daily. Owners call it unprecedented; brokers say fewer deals are failing than in past spikes, meaning this isn’t sentiment froth — it’s structural. Expect refiners to start splitting cargoes into Suezmaxes and quietly building freight surcharges into term contracts rather than eating the spread themselves.
#TankerRates #VLCC #CrudeSupply #ShippingCosts #OilPrices
US Refiners Are Running at 97% With No Diesel Cushion Left Before Winter Hits
There’s no lever left to pull if a single major refinery trips this winter. EIA data show US distillate inventories 13% below the five-year seasonal average even as refineries ran at 97% of operable capacity the week ending September 11 — near the physical ceiling. Distillate output is already at a multi-year high of 5.1 million b/d, and net exports remain near record levels. That combination means any unplanned outage during the November-December demand ramp converts straight into price spikes, not a inventory draw absorbing the hit.
#DieselMarket #RefiningMargins #USRefining #WinterDemand #CrudeSupply
While the Middle East Can’t Guarantee a Barrel, Dangote Just Doubled Down on Becoming the World’s Biggest Refinery
Europe’s fuel security is quietly migrating to Lagos. Dangote’s vice president for oil and gas says the refinery’s workforce will “practically become double” as it scales from 700,000 to 1.4 million b/d by 2029, with basic engineering done and equipment already ordered. The refinery is funding the build partly through an IPO open until October 13. As Aramco zeroes out European allocations and Hormuz remains a chokepoint, Dangote’s push to 1.4 million b/d isn’t a side story — it’s becoming the Atlantic Basin’s backup plan.