MacroEnergyUpdate: Aramco Didn't Just Trim Europe's September Cargoes — It Just Zeroed Out All of October
Update: Aramco Didn’t Just Trim Europe’s September Cargoes — It Just Zeroed Out All of October
What started September 16 as scattered cargo delays has escalated fast: Saudi Aramco told at least two European refining customers they will be allocated no crude next month under long-term agreements, with the decision applying to all European buyers. Poland’s Orlen isn’t waiting to find out how bad it gets — it has issued more than ten tenders since last Friday to secure alternative supplies, since Aramco delivers roughly 40% of the crude Orlen processes. If repairs run the full six weeks, expect this replacement-barrel scramble to define European refining margins through November.
#SaudiArabia #Europe #CrudeSupply #Pipeline #OilPrices
Update: Exxon’s Joliet ‘Three-Hour Blip’ Just Became a Five-Day Blackout — Diesel Broke Its Record Again
The Sunday power trip we flagged as a short-lived stress test wasn’t the whole story. A Thursday filing disclosed that floodwater had overwhelmed a pump at the plant, and the refinery has remained offline through Thursday, five days after the initial outage. The consequence is already visible at the pump: nationwide diesel prices have jumped to a record $6.45 a gallon, with Michigan diesel up 66 cents week-over-week. Restart timing, not the original outage, is now the number that moves Midwest fuel prices.
#ExxonMobil #RefineryOutage #DieselMarket #Midwest #GasolinePrices
US Rig Count Hits a Two-Year High — But Drillers Still Won’t Chase $100 Oil Like They Used To
The U.S. rig count rose by four to 595 for the week ended September 18, its best level since May 2024. Yet the composition tells the real story: producers are still showing considerably more restraint than might historically have been expected with oil above $100, and historically, a sustained move to triple-digit oil prices would have created strong pressure to accelerate drilling. If shale won’t answer this price signal the way it used to, the market has one less release valve left for every future supply shock.