Iran Signs the Hormuz Traffic Deal Monday — Then Confirms the Strait Stays Closed Anyway

Iran Signs the Hormuz Traffic Deal Monday — Then Confirms the Strait Stays Closed Anyway

Update: the Iran-Oman corridor framework we flagged September 7 now has a signing date — Monday in Muscat, with routes to be briefed to other Gulf states. But Tehran got specific about what it isn’t: an Iranian source told Tasnim the arrangement covers entry and exit routes only, and the agreement does not amount to an immediate reopening of the strait, with Hormuz remaining closed until Tehran’s conditions involving the US are met. A vessel was struck near Qeshm Island hours before the signing. Traffic is still about 90% below pre-conflict levels. Paperwork isn’t barrels.

#Iran #Oman #StraitOfHormuz #CrudeSupply #OilGeopolitics

The US Government’s Own Model Says Oil Falls to $77 by Spring — Nobody’s Trading Like They Believe It

Buried in the September STEO is a forecast the market is ignoring: EIA sees Brent decreasing to an average of $77/b by 2Q27, with most shut-in production largely restored in 2H27 and inventories building again, gradually lowering oil prices to an average of $67/b in 2H27. The premise is a new UAE bypass pipeline and shipping companies continuing to find workarounds using pipeline and overland bypass routes and increased ship-to-ship transfers. If Monday’s Muscat signing stalls or Houthi attacks widen, that curve breaks — and it breaks toward $120, not $90.

#EIA #OilPrices #CrudeSupply #StraitOfHormuz #OilForecast

Diesel Just Broke Its All-Time Price Record With Crude $28 Cheaper Than Last Time — And Goldman Says the Margin Stays That Way Into 2027

US diesel hit an all-time record of $5.901 per gallon on 8 September 2026, surpassing the previous June 2022 peak despite crude trading roughly $28 per barrel cheaper. That’s not a crude story — the ULSD crack hit $108/bbl versus $64-73 in 2022. The part that should worry planners: Goldman Sachs forecasts U.S. diesel refining profits at $63 per barrel extending into 2027, with European jet fuel bans on Russian supply running through November setting a structural floor on margins. This isn’t a spike to trade through; it’s a new cost baseline for trucking, ag, and freight.

#DieselMarket #RefiningMargins #GoldmanSachs #GasolinePrices #CrudeSupply