Vitol’s Own Numbers Show Hormuz Product Flows Stuck at a Quarter of Normal

Forget the crude headlines — the real chokepoint is refined products. Oil-product exports through the Strait of Hormuz are slowly recovering, but the pace hasn’t been enough to prevent a surge in fuel prices that is squeezing consumers around the world, with the region currently shipping at least 1 million barrels a day of oil products through the contested waterway, compared with about 4 million barrels a day of prewar shipments, excluding LPG. Until that 75% gap closes, diesel and jet cracks stay wide no matter what crude does.

#StraitOfHormuz #DieselMarket #RefiningMargins #CrudeSupply #OilGeopolitics

Trump Just Put a Date on Pump-Price Relief — It’s Eight Weeks Away, and EIA Isn’t So Sure

The White House just traded ambiguity for a deadline. “Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump told reporters, while claiming gas prices will fall below $2 per gallon, but not until after the early November midterms. The catch: EIA’s own outlook assumes a return to normal tanker traffic through Hormuz in the near term, and warns that if Middle East flows remain constrained beyond 2026, global distillate crack spreads would run higher than forecast. The political calendar and the physical one don’t line up.

#GasolinePrices #DieselMarket #USPolicy #RefiningMargins #OilPrices

Canada’s Oilpatch Just Signaled Where It Wants to Sell Its Barrels: Asia, Not Just the Gulf Coast

While Middle East barrels stay hostage to the tanker war, Western Canada is consolidating to grab the demand vacuum. Tamarack Valley and Headwater Exploration will merge in an all-stock deal valued at $10 billion, creating the largest publicly traded oil producer focused on Alberta’s Clearwater Formation. The combined firm says it can accommodate growth through existing and planned pipelines to Edmonton, giving it an opportunity to mitigate local capacity constraints and obtain greater exposure to diversified oil markets. Read: less dependence on US refiners, more optionality toward Asia.

#Canada #OilSands #CrudeSupply #Asia #MergersAndAcquisitions