MacroEnergyIran and Oman Are About to Manage the Strait of Hormuz — Without a US Signature on the Deal
Iran and Oman Are About to Manage the Strait of Hormuz — Without a US Signature on the Deal
Watch what happens when Washington isn’t at the table. Iran’s foreign ministry says a deal with Oman to formally manage Hormuz shipping is now days away, to be lodged with the IMO as an independent bilateral arrangement. Iran said a deal with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, a move that could tighten Tehran’s control over the waterway and raise questions over how the US would respond. Trump has previously threatened to bomb Oman over exactly this kind of arrangement — the real test now is whether Washington accepts a chokepoint deal it didn’t write.
#Iran #Oman #StraitOfHormuz #OilGeopolitics #CrudeSupply
Goldman’s Real Call Isn’t $120 Oil — It’s to Stop Trading Crude and Start Trading Diesel
The $120 headline is the least useful part of Goldman’s note. Goldman recommends natural gas and diesel trades to capture gains rather than relying only on crude. The reasoning: In gas and fuels, ‘the supply shocks are bigger than in the crude market,’ the expert said. Crude has cushions — dark fleets, China’s price sensitivity, Gulf rerouting — that diesel and gas don’t. If you’re hedging this war, the chokepoint to watch isn’t Brent’s headline number; it’s the crack spread.
#GoldmanSachs #DieselMarket #OilPrices #StraitOfHormuz #RefiningMargins
Guyana Is About to Pump Past Venezuela — And Nobody’s Pricing In the Barrels
While the market obsesses over Hormuz barrels, a genuinely new stream of non-OPEC, non-chokepoint supply is about to hit water. Guyana’s government pegs September for Uaru’s first oil; ExxonMobil, the project’s operator, has consistently guided to a fourth-quarter 2026 startup. Either way, the math is the same: Passing 1 million barrels per day would make Guyana South America’s second-largest oil producer, ahead of Venezuela and behind only Brazil. A war-premium market with a supply story nobody’s modeling is a mispricing waiting to happen.