Kazakhstan Just Cut Its Own Oil Target Because of Drone Strikes — Chevron and Exxon Eat the Loss

Kazakhstan Just Cut Its Own Oil Target Because of Drone Strikes — Chevron and Exxon Eat the Loss

Kazakhstan isn’t waiting for OPEC+ to ration its barrels — it’s doing it itself. Kazakhstan will lower its oil production target for this year due to drone attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, with the original 2026 goal of roughly 99.55 million tons already cut once for maintenance. The revised target now stands at 96 million tons. The CPC terminal handles 80% of Kazakhstan’s crude exports and counts Chevron and ExxonMobil among its shareholders. Every future strike now shows up directly in two US supermajors’ production guidance.

#Kazakhstan #CPC #Chevron #ExxonMobil #OilSupply

Gulf Oil Exports Just Hit Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels — Trump Just Killed the Deal That Could Finish the Job

The market just got a number that undercuts the war-premium thesis entirely. Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf states are exporting roughly 15 to 16 million barrels of oil per day, or more than 60% of pre-war levels, still 7-8 million bpd below normal but 5-6 million above March’s trough. Yet the Trump administration reportedly told mediators it does not intend to revive the terms of a preliminary June agreement with Iran that subsequently collapsed. Translation: exports recover through dark-fleet adaptation, not diplomacy — and shipping markets now price disruptions continuing well into 2027. Expect a lower, longer plateau rather than a clean resolution.

#StraitOfHormuz #Iran #CrudeOil #GoldmanSachs #OilGeopolitics

Europe’s Diesel Crack Just Fell $17 a Barrel — California Won’t Feel It for Another Month

Refining margins are no longer moving together, and that gap is a timing trade. US Gulf Coast diesel cracks sit near $93-94 a barrel after topping $102, Northwest Europe’s gasoil crack has already slid to around $78 from near $95, and Singapore’s is near $72. Transit times of 25-45 days mean disruptions in Asian export availability hit California with a lag but then linger. If Asian and European cracks are already easing, West Coast refiners and drivers are still pricing the shortage that’s fading everywhere else — a squeeze built entirely on shipping schedules, not fresh supply loss.

#DieselMarket #RefiningMargins #California #WestCoastRefining #FuelSupply