Iran Sanctions Just Landed ‘Soft’ — Oil Crashed 7%, But Diesel Didn’t Move a Cent

UPDATE on Bessent’s Monday deadline: the sanctions arrived, and traders read them as toothless. Brent fell over 7% in two sessions because the package set no actual deadline and spared the Chinese banks that clear over 80% of Iran’s crude sales. But the relief is crude-only. The US diesel crack is holding near $100/barrel, and diesel prices haven’t dropped a cent — proof the real constraint moved downstream to refining capacity, where sanctions relief can’t reach it.

#Iran #Sanctions #DieselMarket #CrudeOil #RefiningMargins

Shell’s $8 Billion Chemicals Fire Sale Is a Verdict on the Plastics Cycle, Not Just a Balance Sheet Move

Watch who’s circling, not just the price tag. ExxonMobil, LyondellBasell, Apollo, and Kuwait Petroleum have all filed non-binding bids for Shell’s four US chemical plants, a deal that could reach $8 billion but represents a steep discount to what Shell actually spent — including the $14 billion Monaca, Pennsylvania complex alone. Strategics buying distressed petrochemical assets at a fraction of replacement cost signals the industry expects this cyclical trough to last long enough to make patience the winning trade.

#Shell #ExxonMobil #LyondellBasell #Petrochemicals #M&A

Russia’s Refining Capacity Just Hit a 24-Year Low — and Its Belarusian Backup Is About to Go Offline Too

September is shaping up as the worst month yet for Russian fuel supply. Ukrainian drones hit the Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez refinery for the second time this month, part of a campaign that has pushed Russian refining output to its lowest level since May 2002 at 3.6 million b/d. The timing is brutal: Belarus’s Novopolotsk refinery, which just shipped a record 212,000 tonnes of petrol to Russia in July, goes into scheduled maintenance in September — right as major domestic refineries do the same, stacking two supply gaps on top of an already-rationed market.

#RussianOil #UkraineWar #RefineryOutage #FuelCrisis #DieselMarket