The Hormuz Ceasefire Just Expired. The Real News Is Zero Ships Crossed Sunday.

The Hormuz Ceasefire Just Expired. The Real News Is Zero Ships Crossed Sunday.

The 60-day US-Iran ceasefire lapsed today, but the sharper signal is that only five cargo ships passed through the strait on Saturday and none were registered to pass on Sunday, compared with 31 vessels the previous weekend. That means the closure is already priced into markets—a formal ceasefire collapse changes little in physical flows. The bigger swing factor is that Tehran is working on a separate agreement with Oman to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a deal Washington isn’t party to. If that lands, barrels could move again without Trump securing anything he’s demanded.

#StraitOfHormuz #HormuzCeasefire #OilSupply #CrudeOil #EnergyMarkets

Trump Wants to Own the Strait of Hormuz. Iran and Oman May Just Reopen It Without Him.

Trump has announced plans to declare the Strait of Hormuz a ‘territory’ of the US, telling supporters the US would soon claim the waterway critical for global oil supply. Legally it goes nowhere: Oman and Iran share jurisdiction of the waterway, not Washington. More consequential: Tehran is working on a separate agreement with Oman to restore traffic through the strait. If Muscat and Tehran strike that deal first, Hormuz could reopen entirely outside US leverage—making the territorial theater irrelevant to whether crude actually starts flowing.

#StraitOfHormuz #Iran #Oman #OilGeopolitics #CrudeSupply

A Single Tanker’s War-Risk Insurance Now Costs More Than $20 Million a Voyage

A 270,000-DWT crude tanker valued at $210 million can pay roughly $21 million in additional war-risk premium for a single high-tension Hormuz transit—call it near $10 per barrel of cargo before the crude even reaches a refinery. This isn’t a spike that snaps back when headlines calm: insurers are shifting to voyage-by-voyage underwriting due to volatility. Refiners modeling a ‘return to normal’ Hormuz should price in a permanently higher landed-cost floor, not pre-war freight economics.

#TankerInsurance #StraitOfHormuz #ShippingCosts #CrudeOil #FreightRates